Of the eleven claims this publication has published against the 2 August 2026 EU AI Act enforcement deadline, the four operational-evidence claims (AM-108 data residency, AM-046 audit-evidence under four hours, AM-117 AI-BOM procurement, AM-120 works council workflow) carry materially higher risk of moving from Holding to Partial in Q3 2026 than the two governance-process claims (AM-047 Head of AI Governance role, AM-051 centralised-vs-federated). Materially higher risk is defined as: at least three of the four operational-evidence claims will be downgraded to Partial or Not holding by 1 October 2026, while at least one of the two governance-process claims will remain Holding.

The deadline-anchored slice that complements the quarterly Q2/Q3 review bulletin (AM-115). Audits the corpus's own predictions against what is actually happening in enterprise procurement 91 days out from 2 August 2026 enforcement window. Falsifiable: either three of four operational claims downgrade by 1 Oct 2026, or AM-127 moves to Not holding. Numerical threshold (3 of 4 operational, 1 of 2 governance) keeps the claim auditable on the publicly visible status of the eleven cited claims on 1 Oct 2026. Article 113 deadline distinction (2 Aug 2026 Annex III high-risk vs 2 Aug 2027 Annex II embedded products) explicitly stated up-front. Vendor claims hedged where primary documentation not located. AI-BOM procurement gap, works council consent workflow gap, and audit-evidence assembly gap are the three operational surfaces most likely to drive the downgrades. Cadence is 60-day to align with the deadline; this piece becomes the recurring quarterly state-of-AI series picking one slice of the corpus to trace through the ledger.