A durable enterprise agentic AI business case requires three specific documents — a TCO model with ten named cost categories (not vendor-supplied line items), an ROI model with a pre-deployment measured baseline and an independent validation round, and a three-scenario risk-adjusted NPV. The single-scenario vendor-framed business cases that dominate 2026 enterprise AI investment committees are the predictable root of the 40%+ projected agentic AI project cancellation rate.

Claim scoped to enterprise agentic AI business cases specifically (not enterprise SaaS generally). 60-day review cadence. Watches: (1) studies showing single-scenario NPVs produce outcomes equivalent to three-scenario, (2) aggregate post-18-month audits reordering the anti-pattern ranking (e.g., compliance understatement dominant over vendor-TCO framing), (3) regulatory changes (EU AI Act review, NIST AI RMF updates) that materially shift compliance-cost dynamics.